NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OHIO BUFF
Points 81.2 65.9
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 28.4 20.1
Points From Free Throws 14.3 11.7
Shooting OHIO BUFF
Field Goals Made 28.7 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.4 57.7
Field Goal % 45.3% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 14.3 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 16.3
Free Throw % 74.1% 71.6%
Ball Control OHIO BUFF
Rebounds 37.2 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.8
Turnovers 8.2 13.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.6
Steals 7.1 4.6
Fouls 12.5 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OHIO BUFF
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 74.5 68.1
% of Possessions with OHIO BUFF
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 27.1%
Player Fouled 19.3% 17.3%
Turnover 11.4% 19.0%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OHIO BUFF
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 27.1%