NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST IW
Points 76.8 63.8
Total Points   140.6
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 30.1
Points From 3-Pointers 14.6 17.6
Points From Free Throws 18.7 16.1
Shooting TXST IW
Field Goals Made 26.6 20.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 52.5
Field Goal % 46.6% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 45.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 13.3 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 18.7 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 22.5
Free Throw % 70.3% 71.7%
Ball Control TXST IW
Rebounds 36.1 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 9.3
Turnovers 10.2 15.5
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.6
Steals 8.5 5.6
Fouls 16.2 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST IW
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 66.7
% of Possessions with TXST IW
2 Point Attempt 51.6% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 15.7% 23.4%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.3%
Turnover 14.0% 21.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 11.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST IW
Shot Blocked 6.9% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 26.6%