NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST IW
Points 83.3 67.4
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 31.2 17.1
Points From Free Throws 15.5 16.5
Shooting MTST IW
Field Goals Made 28.7 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 54.2
Field Goal % 49.7% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 42.7% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 15.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 23.1
Free Throw % 72.4% 71.7%
Ball Control MTST IW
Rebounds 31.8 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 10.0
Turnovers 10.0 14.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 8.8 5.1
Fouls 16.8 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST IW
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 69.0
% of Possessions with MTST IW
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 21.5%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.8%
Turnover 13.5% 20.0%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST IW
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 28.4%