NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OHIO ILL
Points 72.4 88.2
Total Points   160.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 25.1
Points From Free Throws 12.4 20.3
Shooting OHIO ILL
Field Goals Made 26.3 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.3 60.0
Field Goal % 41.6% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 12.4 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 27.4
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.8%
Ball Control OHIO ILL
Rebounds 28.1 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 14.3
Turnovers 7.3 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.1
Steals 4.8 3.7
Fouls 16.7 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OHIO ILL
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 77.1
% of Possessions with OHIO ILL
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 25.3%
Player Fouled 18.3% 23.2%
Turnover 10.2% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken OHIO ILL
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 41.5%