NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST CSUS
Points 73.1 65.9
Total Points   139.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 18.4
Points From Free Throws 12.0 14.0
Shooting MTST CSUS
Field Goals Made 26.3 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 51.8
Field Goal % 49.2% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 12.0 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 19.5
Free Throw % 72.4% 71.7%
Ball Control MTST CSUS
Rebounds 26.7 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 10.9
Turnovers 10.1 13.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.4
Steals 8.1 4.9
Fouls 15.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST CSUS
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 64.8
% of Possessions with MTST CSUS
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 24.0%
Player Fouled 23.6% 23.3%
Turnover 14.9% 20.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST CSUS
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 33.9%