NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OHIO NIU
Points 80.1 69.5
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 21.4
Points From Free Throws 17.2 15.4
Shooting OHIO NIU
Field Goals Made 26.5 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 54.8
Field Goal % 44.1% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 17.2 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 22.9
Free Throw % 74.1% 67.4%
Ball Control OHIO NIU
Rebounds 35.0 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 10.6
Turnovers 8.0 12.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.7
Steals 6.7 3.5
Fouls 16.6 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OHIO NIU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 69.3
% of Possessions with OHIO NIU
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 25.0%
Player Fouled 22.1% 23.2%
Turnover 11.2% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken OHIO NIU
Shot Blocked 8.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 29.7%