NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST AMCC
Points 68.8 66.6
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 11.1 13.5
Points From Free Throws 18.6 17.3
Shooting TXST AMCC
Field Goals Made 23.3 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 50.0 55.8
Field Goal % 46.5% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 3.7 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 12.1 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 28.7%
Free Throws Made 18.6 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.5 24.1
Free Throw % 70.3% 71.6%
Ball Control TXST AMCC
Rebounds 34.5 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 10.6
Turnovers 13.4 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.9
Steals 6.6 8.3
Fouls 16.6 19.3

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST AMCC
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 70.6
% of Possessions with TXST AMCC
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 15.0% 18.7%
Player Fouled 26.9% 23.1%
Turnover 18.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST AMCC
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 28.7%