NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST NAU
Points 76.9 69.1
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 16.4
Points From Free Throws 14.5 14.1
Shooting MTST NAU
Field Goals Made 27.7 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 54.9
Field Goal % 49.1% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 14.5 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 20.3
Free Throw % 72.4% 69.2%
Ball Control MTST NAU
Rebounds 32.5 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 8.1
Turnovers 10.4 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.7
Steals 8.2 4.8
Fouls 16.8 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST NAU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 67.7
% of Possessions with MTST NAU
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 22.2%
Player Fouled 23.3% 23.4%
Turnover 14.5% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST NAU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 24.0%