NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST NEOM
Points 72.8 70.3
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 19.0
Points From Free Throws 14.8 16.1
Shooting MTST NEOM
Field Goals Made 24.7 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 56.1
Field Goal % 45.7% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.0 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 14.8 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 21.7
Free Throw % 72.9% 74.1%
Ball Control MTST NEOM
Rebounds 31.7 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.4 8.9
Turnovers 8.3 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 1.7
Steals 5.3 4.4
Fouls 15.9 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST NEOM
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 69.1
% of Possessions with MTST NEOM
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.4% 22.9%
Player Fouled 23.9% 23.0%
Turnover 12.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST NEOM
Shot Blocked 3.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 16.6% 25.3%