NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST UNLV
Points 66.5 77.0
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.5 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 25.9 16.3
Points From Free Throws 11.0 17.7
Shooting MTST UNLV
Field Goals Made 23.4 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 53.2
Field Goal % 42.1% 50.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 11.0 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 24.2
Free Throw % 72.4% 73.0%
Ball Control MTST UNLV
Rebounds 27.9 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 9.2
Turnovers 11.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.9
Steals 6.4 5.5
Fouls 17.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST UNLV
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 68.3
% of Possessions with MTST UNLV
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 19.7%
Player Fouled 20.1% 24.7%
Turnover 17.1% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST UNLV
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 30.4%