NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST ARST
Points 71.0 76.5
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 44.2 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 11.2 23.9
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.7
Shooting TXST ARST
Field Goals Made 25.9 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 59.4
Field Goal % 44.0% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 47.8 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 3.7 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 11.0 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 22.4
Free Throw % 70.3% 70.2%
Ball Control TXST ARST
Rebounds 34.7 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.8
Turnovers 9.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.8
Steals 6.2 5.4
Fouls 14.8 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST ARST
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 73.1
% of Possessions with TXST ARST
2 Point Attempt 57.3% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 13.1% 28.5%
Player Fouled 21.9% 20.7%
Turnover 13.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST ARST
Shot Blocked 8.3% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 32.3%