NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST SUU
Points 78.3 74.8
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 44.3 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 15.9
Points From Free Throws 11.7 17.3
Shooting MTST SUU
Field Goals Made 29.6 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 56.4
Field Goal % 49.8% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 11.7 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 24.3
Free Throw % 72.4% 71.3%
Ball Control MTST SUU
Rebounds 32.2 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 9.2
Turnovers 11.1 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.6
Steals 7.1 5.6
Fouls 18.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: S Utah

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST SUU
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 71.4
% of Possessions with MTST SUU
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 21.7%
Player Fouled 21.2% 25.2%
Turnover 15.2% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST SUU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 26.8%