NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST UALR
Points 68.2 71.7
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 16.3
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.1
Shooting TXST UALR
Field Goals Made 23.6 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 55.5
Field Goal % 41.8% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 19.3
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.1%
Ball Control TXST UALR
Rebounds 33.4 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.4
Turnovers 11.7 13.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.8
Steals 6.7 5.6
Fouls 14.9 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST UALR
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.8
% of Possessions with TXST UALR
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 17.1% 20.0%
Player Fouled 21.9% 20.8%
Turnover 16.3% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST UALR
Shot Blocked 8.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 29.1%