NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST IDHO
Points 74.2 66.3
Total Points   140.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 19.9
Points From Free Throws 13.8 11.9
Shooting MTST IDHO
Field Goals Made 25.9 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 53.5
Field Goal % 48.8% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 13.8 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 16.0
Free Throw % 72.4% 74.3%
Ball Control MTST IDHO
Rebounds 31.0 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 6.6
Turnovers 10.2 12.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.7
Steals 7.6 4.7
Fouls 14.9 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST IDHO
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 63.3
% of Possessions with MTST IDHO
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 26.1%
Player Fouled 24.4% 21.6%
Turnover 14.8% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST IDHO
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 20.7%