NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST PRST
Points 75.3 69.9
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.8 19.0
Points From Free Throws 14.2 16.4
Shooting MTST PRST
Field Goals Made 26.1 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 57.1
Field Goal % 47.9% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 14.2 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 23.6
Free Throw % 72.4% 69.4%
Ball Control MTST PRST
Rebounds 32.7 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 11.1
Turnovers 12.3 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.7
Steals 6.5 6.1
Fouls 17.2 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Portland St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST PRST
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 72.1
% of Possessions with MTST PRST
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 23.5%
Player Fouled 24.4% 23.7%
Turnover 17.0% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST PRST
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 29.5%