NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST WEB
Points 74.3 74.1
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 19.2
Points From Free Throws 11.1 16.1
Shooting MTST WEB
Field Goals Made 27.4 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 52.7
Field Goal % 51.8% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 11.1 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 21.8
Free Throw % 72.4% 73.7%
Ball Control MTST WEB
Rebounds 28.2 30.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.0 7.0
Turnovers 11.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.0 1.4
Steals 6.0 6.2
Fouls 17.3 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST WEB
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 62.4 66.0
% of Possessions with MTST WEB
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 24.6%
Player Fouled 22.0% 24.9%
Turnover 17.2% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST WEB
Shot Blocked 2.6% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 17.9% 23.2%