NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR OSU
Points 77.3 66.9
Total Points   144.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 19.8
Points From Free Throws 16.2 10.0
Shooting PUR OSU
Field Goals Made 27.0 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 62.2
Field Goal % 45.3% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.9% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 16.2 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 13.3
Free Throw % 73.0% 75.2%
Ball Control PUR OSU
Rebounds 43.0 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 8.9
Turnovers 9.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 4.2 4.9
Fouls 12.7 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR OSU
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 70.2
% of Possessions with PUR OSU
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 27.0%
Player Fouled 24.7% 18.3%
Turnover 13.1% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR OSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 36.9% 23.0%