NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR ORE
Points 81.4 65.3
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 23.6
Points From Free Throws 13.0 10.8
Shooting PUR ORE
Field Goals Made 29.5 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 55.5
Field Goal % 49.1% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 13.0 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 14.6
Free Throw % 74.1% 74.0%
Ball Control PUR ORE
Rebounds 37.9 29.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 20.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 9.0
Turnovers 7.2 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.2
Steals 5.9 4.5
Fouls 12.0 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR ORE
Total Possessions 65.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 64.6
% of Possessions with PUR ORE
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 32.7%
Player Fouled 19.9% 18.4%
Turnover 11.0% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR ORE
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 38.6% 26.4%