NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR MARQ
Points 79.8 73.1
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 26.9
Points From Free Throws 15.5 8.1
Shooting PUR MARQ
Field Goals Made 27.6 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 63.2
Field Goal % 46.7% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.2% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 15.5 8.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 11.7
Free Throw % 72.8% 69.1%
Ball Control PUR MARQ
Rebounds 43.7 28.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 14.3 7.5
Turnovers 11.6 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 4.9 7.4
Fouls 11.1 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR MARQ
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 70.0
% of Possessions with PUR MARQ
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 33.3%
Player Fouled 22.0% 15.7%
Turnover 16.4% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR MARQ
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 41.0% 20.3%