NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR FSU
Points 85.0 67.9
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 16.5
Points From Free Throws 22.8 11.5
Shooting PUR FSU
Field Goals Made 27.1 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 62.2
Field Goal % 49.6% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 41.7% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 22.8 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 31.3 16.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 70.5%
Ball Control PUR FSU
Rebounds 45.4 26.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.7 17.8
Rebounds - Offensive 14.7 8.5
Turnovers 12.5 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 4.5 8.3
Fouls 13.7 20.6

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR FSU
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 72.0
% of Possessions with PUR FSU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 23.4%
Player Fouled 28.4% 18.8%
Turnover 17.3% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR FSU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 45.3% 21.7%