NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SBON DAY
Points 67.7 73.2
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 30.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 28.2
Points From Free Throws 9.6 14.7
Shooting SBON DAY
Field Goals Made 25.1 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 51.6
Field Goal % 43.1% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 27.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 9.6 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 12.5 19.6
Free Throw % 77.3% 74.7%
Ball Control SBON DAY
Rebounds 31.4 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.0
Turnovers 9.0 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.6
Steals 5.3 4.1
Fouls 15.0 11.3

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SBON DAY
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 63.1
% of Possessions with SBON DAY
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 37.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 31.9%
Player Fouled 17.1% 22.7%
Turnover 13.6% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SBON DAY
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 23.6%