NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN UAB
Points 69.9 88.5
Total Points   158.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 25.1
Points From Free Throws 13.8 20.0
Shooting ALCN UAB
Field Goals Made 25.5 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 55.4
Field Goal % 41.5% 54.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 46.1 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 64.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 13.8 20.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 26.9
Free Throw % 72.2% 74.3%
Ball Control ALCN UAB
Rebounds 30.7 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 18.6 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 10.8
Turnovers 9.9 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.0 5.1
Steals 5.8 5.6
Fouls 17.5 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN UAB
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 72.1
% of Possessions with ALCN UAB
2 Point Attempt 54.5% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 18.0% 26.5%
Player Fouled 19.2% 24.8%
Turnover 14.1% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN UAB
Shot Blocked 9.2% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 36.7%