NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN ARPB
Points 86.0 80.2
Total Points   166.2
Points From 2-Pointers 51.1 24.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 39.8
Points From Free Throws 16.4 16.1
Shooting ALCN ARPB
Field Goals Made 31.7 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 54.9
Field Goal % 49.8% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.6 12.2
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 21.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 33.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 16.4 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 21.4
Free Throw % 72.2% 75.0%
Ball Control ALCN ARPB
Rebounds 40.1 28.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 6.2
Turnovers 8.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 1.9 1.5
Steals 6.1 4.0
Fouls 16.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN ARPB
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 78.2 67.9
% of Possessions with ALCN ARPB
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 27.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 41.9%
Player Fouled 20.9% 22.9%
Turnover 11.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN ARPB
Shot Blocked 2.7% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 38.6% 19.1%