NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN ALST
Points 74.2 71.5
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 27.8
Points From Free Throws 18.4 12.5
Shooting ALCN ALST
Field Goals Made 24.9 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 63.2
Field Goal % 44.1% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 30.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 18.4 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 17.3
Free Throw % 72.2% 72.4%
Ball Control ALCN ALST
Rebounds 41.1 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.3 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 11.6
Turnovers 11.2 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.0
Steals 4.9 6.6
Fouls 13.8 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN ALST
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 74.1
% of Possessions with ALCN ALST
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 36.0%
Player Fouled 23.7% 19.4%
Turnover 15.8% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN ALST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.5% 28.4%