NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN PV
Points 80.0 73.6
Total Points   153.6
Points From 2-Pointers 45.8 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 16.6
Points From Free Throws 19.3 15.3
Shooting ALCN PV
Field Goals Made 27.9 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 55.6
Field Goal % 52.1% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.9 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 13.2 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 19.3 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.8 21.7
Free Throw % 72.2% 70.5%
Ball Control ALCN PV
Rebounds 37.1 25.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 17.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 8.0
Turnovers 13.1 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.2
Steals 5.9 7.2
Fouls 17.4 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN PV
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 69.0
% of Possessions with ALCN PV
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 15.5% 20.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 24.3%
Turnover 18.3% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN PV
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 40.4% 24.3%