NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN SIU
Points 67.2 82.2
Total Points   149.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.7 29.8
Points From 3-Pointers 9.8 35.4
Points From Free Throws 15.7 17.0
Shooting ALCN SIU
Field Goals Made 24.1 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 52.3
Field Goal % 43.5% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.7 22.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 67.4%
3 Pointers Made 3.3 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 10.7 30.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 15.7 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 22.1
Free Throw % 72.2% 77.2%
Ball Control ALCN SIU
Rebounds 30.9 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 7.7
Turnovers 9.4 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.5
Steals 5.4 4.6
Fouls 17.1 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN SIU
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 65.8
% of Possessions with ALCN SIU
2 Point Attempt 56.4% 28.9%
3 Point Attempt 13.5% 39.6%
Player Fouled 24.0% 25.2%
Turnover 13.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN SIU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 27.1%