NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN NCST
Points 64.1 89.5
Total Points   153.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 43.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 29.1
Points From Free Throws 13.2 17.2
Shooting ALCN NCST
Field Goals Made 23.0 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 57.1
Field Goal % 39.1% 54.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 41.5% 64.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.1 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 41.0%
Free Throws Made 13.2 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 23.7
Free Throw % 72.2% 72.6%
Ball Control ALCN NCST
Rebounds 31.4 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.4
Turnovers 11.0 7.6
Blocked Shots 1.4 4.7
Steals 4.2 6.4
Fouls 16.1 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN NCST
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 71.7
% of Possessions with ALCN NCST
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.2% 29.6%
Player Fouled 19.1% 23.0%
Turnover 15.7% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN NCST
Shot Blocked 8.3% 2.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 31.7%