NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU SDSU
Points 68.5 68.8
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 28.8 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 17.3
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.4
Shooting BSU SDSU
Field Goals Made 22.4 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 53.8
Field Goal % 39.6% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 27.8%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 20.8
Free Throw % 74.3% 73.7%
Ball Control BSU SDSU
Rebounds 36.2 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 8.6
Turnovers 10.4 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.3
Steals 5.2 5.9
Fouls 16.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Boise St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU SDSU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 66.8
% of Possessions with BSU SDSU
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 26.8%
Player Fouled 23.0% 24.5%
Turnover 15.2% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU SDSU
Shot Blocked 8.0% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 26.0%