NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU SHSU
Points 78.0 64.7
Total Points   142.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 17.1
Points From Free Throws 17.3 13.5
Shooting BSU SHSU
Field Goals Made 26.4 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 55.2
Field Goal % 48.7% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.9 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 59.5% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 17.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 18.7
Free Throw % 74.3% 72.3%
Ball Control BSU SHSU
Rebounds 36.7 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 8.4
Turnovers 10.1 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 1.9
Steals 5.1 5.0
Fouls 15.8 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Sam Hous St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU SHSU
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 66.7
% of Possessions with BSU SHSU
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 24.6%
Player Fouled 24.6% 22.9%
Turnover 14.6% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU SHSU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 23.9%