NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU SLU
Points 83.6 69.9
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 28.3 19.8
Points From Free Throws 17.6 15.2
Shooting BSU SLU
Field Goals Made 28.3 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 52.5
Field Goal % 48.5% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 17.6 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 20.3
Free Throw % 74.3% 75.1%
Ball Control BSU SLU
Rebounds 36.3 28.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 6.1
Turnovers 7.9 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.9
Steals 5.8 4.4
Fouls 15.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU SLU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 64.5
% of Possessions with BSU SLU
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 26.6%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.0%
Turnover 11.4% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU SLU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 19.7%