NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU FRES
Points 79.6 64.1
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.0 17.7
Points From Free Throws 13.7 11.0
Shooting BSU FRES
Field Goals Made 28.6 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 52.1
Field Goal % 48.7% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 29.1%
Free Throws Made 13.7 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 15.7
Free Throw % 74.3% 69.6%
Ball Control BSU FRES
Rebounds 37.2 26.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 5.5
Turnovers 8.6 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.2
Steals 5.2 4.7
Fouls 14.4 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU FRES
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 61.3
% of Possessions with BSU FRES
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 27.4%
Player Fouled 21.0% 21.4%
Turnover 12.8% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU FRES
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 17.8%