NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCU GONZ
Points 71.7 82.3
Total Points   154.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 48.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 17.7
Points From Free Throws 11.2 15.8
Shooting SCU GONZ
Field Goals Made 26.2 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 60.6
Field Goal % 41.8% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 24.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 11.2 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 21.4
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.6%
Ball Control SCU GONZ
Rebounds 36.3 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 9.8
Turnovers 10.6 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.9
Steals 3.5 6.2
Fouls 15.8 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCU GONZ
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 73.6
% of Possessions with SCU GONZ
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 52.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 22.2%
Player Fouled 19.9% 22.2%
Turnover 14.9% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCU GONZ
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 29.3%