NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCU GONZ
Points 71.6 82.4
Total Points   154.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 16.6
Points From Free Throws 11.0 15.3
Shooting SCU GONZ
Field Goals Made 25.7 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.3 59.5
Field Goal % 41.3% 51.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 25.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 61.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 28.5 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 11.0 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 21.3
Free Throw % 75.3% 71.8%
Ball Control SCU GONZ
Rebounds 31.6 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.5
Turnovers 10.8 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.3
Steals 6.4 6.6
Fouls 16.5 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCU GONZ
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 72.9
% of Possessions with SCU GONZ
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.1% 22.2%
Player Fouled 17.1% 23.2%
Turnover 15.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCU GONZ
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 35.7%