NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WMU BUFF
Points 75.7 69.6
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 21.6
Points From Free Throws 11.7 11.5
Shooting WMU BUFF
Field Goals Made 27.8 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 60.7
Field Goal % 43.5% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 29.1%
Free Throws Made 11.7 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 16.0
Free Throw % 61.5% 71.6%
Ball Control WMU BUFF
Rebounds 43.2 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 15.2 9.7
Turnovers 10.7 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.8
Steals 5.1 6.0
Fouls 12.9 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WMU BUFF
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 76.7 70.8
% of Possessions with WMU BUFF
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 29.8%
Player Fouled 19.3% 17.9%
Turnover 14.9% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WMU BUFF
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 37.7% 25.7%