NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU AFA
Points 77.0 61.1
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 28.6
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 22.3
Points From Free Throws 18.1 10.1
Shooting BSU AFA
Field Goals Made 25.6 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 49.6
Field Goal % 49.5% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 25.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.2% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 18.1 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 14.7
Free Throw % 74.3% 68.7%
Ball Control BSU AFA
Rebounds 35.9 23.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 18.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 5.5
Turnovers 9.2 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.6
Steals 5.3 5.0
Fouls 14.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Boise St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU AFA
Total Possessions 64.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 58.5
% of Possessions with BSU AFA
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 36.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 33.3%
Player Fouled 24.8% 23.0%
Turnover 14.3% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU AFA
Shot Blocked 7.4% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 37.6% 18.1%