NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCU LMU
Points 77.7 68.8
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 43.9 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 20.9
Points From Free Throws 12.3 13.5
Shooting SCU LMU
Field Goals Made 29.1 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 58.7
Field Goal % 47.8% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 12.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 18.3
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.7%
Ball Control SCU LMU
Rebounds 39.0 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 9.3
Turnovers 7.6 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.0
Steals 3.7 3.2
Fouls 14.6 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCU LMU
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 69.5
% of Possessions with SCU LMU
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 28.5%
Player Fouled 21.6% 21.3%
Turnover 11.1% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCU LMU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 25.2%