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W Michigan at Toledo
Sat Feb 27, 2021
5:00pm ET
Toledo, OH
W Michigan at Toledo: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Toledo by 16.5, Total Points: 144.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | WMU | adv | TOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 17-14-0 | 15-17-0 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 12-7-0 | 8-11-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 4-6-0 | |
| Home | 7-6-0 | 7-8-0 | |
| Away | 10-8-0 | 8-9-0 |
W Michigan Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | N Dakota St | +3.5 | L by 4 | -0.5 |
| 11/11 | Home | Georgia St | +5.5 | L by 7 | -1.5 |
| 11/14 | Away | Northwestern | +23.5 | L by 4 | +19.5 |
| 11/19 | Away | Ohio St | +21.5 | L by 17 | +4.5 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | SE Louisiana | +2.0 | W by 1 | +3.0 |
| 11/25 | Neutral | Mercer | +1.0 | W by 6 | +7.0 |
| 12/01 | Home | St. Thomas | -3.0 | L by 14 | -17.0 |
| 12/05 | Away | Notre Dame | +9.5 | L by 21 | -11.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Youngs St | +5.0 | L by 4 | +1.0 |
| 12/16 | Away | IL-Chicago | +11.5 | L by 21 | -9.5 |
| 12/21 | Away | Cleveland St | +9.5 | L by 13 | -3.5 |
| 12/29 | Home | Aquinas | -- | W by 56 | -- |
| 01/02 | Away | Miami (OH) | +5.0 | W by 9 | +14.0 |
| 01/06 | Away | Buffalo | +3.0 | W by 5 | +8.0 |
| 01/09 | Home | N Illinois | -3.0 | W by 5 | +2.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Ohio | +4.0 | W by 2 | +6.0 |
| 01/16 | Away | Akron | +14.0 | L by 11 | +3.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Bowling Grn | +9.0 | L by 5 | +4.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | E Michigan | -4.5 | W by 17 | +12.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Central Mich | -3.0 | L by 7 | -10.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Toledo | +11.5 | L by 25 | -13.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Ball St | -1.0 | L by 10 | -11.0 |
| 02/06 | Away | Kent St | +10.0 | L by 2 | +8.0 |
| 02/10 | Away | S Mississippi | +7.5 | L by 32 | -24.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Central Mich | +5.5 | L by 27 | -21.5 |
| 02/20 | Home | Miami (OH) | +3.5 | W by 19 | +22.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | Buffalo | -6.0 | W by 19 | +13.0 |
| 02/27 | Away | E Michigan | -2.5 | L by 3 | -5.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | Ball St | +6.5 | W by 2 | +8.5 |
| 03/05 | Home | Bowling Grn | -2.0 | L by 8 | -10.0 |
| 03/08 | Home | Akron | +9.0 | W by 6 | +15.0 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Ohio | +9.0 | L by 27 | -18.0 |
Toledo Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Detroit | -15.5 | W by 34 | +18.5 |
| 11/11 | Home | Louisiana | -7.5 | W by 9 | +1.5 |
| 11/14 | Away | Wright St | +2.5 | W by 1 | +3.5 |
| 11/21 | Neutral | New Mexico | +2.0 | L by 8 | -6.0 |
| 11/22 | Neutral | UC Irvine | +2.0 | L by 6 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | Indiana St | +4.0 | L by 2 | +2.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Geo Mason | -4.5 | L by 9 | -13.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Oakland | +1.0 | W by 1 | +2.0 |
| 12/09 | Home | N Iowa | -3.5 | W by 4 | +0.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Marshall | -8.0 | W by 1 | -7.0 |
| 12/20 | Home | Vermont | -6.5 | L by 26 | -32.5 |
| 12/23 | Away | W Virginia | +4.5 | L by 10 | -5.5 |
| 01/02 | Away | Ohio | +2.0 | W by 9 | +11.0 |
| 01/05 | Home | Miami (OH) | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Kent St | +4.0 | W by 14 | +18.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Ball St | -11.0 | W by 5 | -6.0 |
| 01/16 | Home | Buffalo | -15.0 | W by 11 | -4.0 |
| 01/19 | Away | Central Mich | -7.5 | L by 3 | -10.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | N Illinois | -5.5 | W by 16 | +10.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Bowling Grn | -6.5 | W by 16 | +9.5 |
| 01/30 | Home | W Michigan | -11.5 | W by 25 | +13.5 |
| 02/02 | Away | Akron | +3.5 | L by 7 | -3.5 |
| 02/06 | Away | E Michigan | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | App State | +6.5 | L by 5 | +1.5 |
| 02/16 | Home | Ohio | -5.5 | W by 2 | -3.5 |
| 02/20 | Home | Akron | -2.0 | W by 8 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | Away | Bowling Grn | -4.0 | L by 8 | -12.0 |
| 02/27 | Home | N Illinois | -15.5 | L by 3 | -18.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | Buffalo | -10.5 | W by 6 | -4.5 |
| 03/05 | Away | Miami (OH) | -2.0 | W by 34 | +32.0 |
| 03/08 | Home | Kent St | -7.5 | W by 15 | +7.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Kent St | -5.0 | L by 8 | -13.0 |
| TOL -16.0 | Open | -16.5 | High | -17.0 |
| Last | -16.5 | Low | -16.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 869 games where the closing line favored the home team by 15.5 to 17.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Toledo won the game 823 times (94.7%).
- The team like Western Michigan won the game 46 times (5.3%).
- The team like Western Michigan did better against the spread, going 444-417-8 (51.6% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 644 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Western Michigan did better against the spread, going 318-299-27 (51.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.1 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -15.5 | -16.5 | -16.5 |
| Open | -17.0 | -17.0 | -16.5 |
| History | |||
| 02/27 04:59 PM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 04:50 PM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 04:08 PM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 01:59 PM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 12:29 PM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 12:08 PM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 11:20 AM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 10:35 AM | -- | -- | -16.5 |
| 02/27 10:23 AM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 09:38 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/27 09:24 AM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 02/27 08:25 AM | -- | -- | -16.5 |
| 02/27 08:17 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/26 11:55 PM | -- | -- | -16.5 |
| 02/26 11:26 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/26 06:24 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/26 06:14 PM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
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