NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU UNLV
Points 71.7 68.1
Total Points   139.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 15.8
Points From Free Throws 14.6 14.3
Shooting BSU UNLV
Field Goals Made 24.6 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 52.2
Field Goal % 42.6% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 14.6 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 19.6
Free Throw % 74.3% 73.0%
Ball Control BSU UNLV
Rebounds 36.6 30.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 6.9
Turnovers 9.8 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.2
Steals 5.2 4.5
Fouls 15.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU UNLV
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 64.0
% of Possessions with BSU UNLV
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 23.5%
Player Fouled 20.7% 22.9%
Turnover 14.6% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU UNLV
Shot Blocked 8.3% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 35.3% 22.4%