NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCLA SDSU
Points 61.6 67.6
Total Points   129.2
Points From 2-Pointers 29.6 29.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 21.6
Points From Free Throws 15.5 16.9
Shooting UCLA SDSU
Field Goals Made 20.3 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 53.3
Field Goal % 38.3% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 15.5 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.7
Free Throw % 74.3% 74.5%
Ball Control UCLA SDSU
Rebounds 33.7 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 10.9
Turnovers 10.4 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.6
Steals 4.9 5.6
Fouls 18.3 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: UCLA

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCLA SDSU
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 67.4
% of Possessions with UCLA SDSU
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 38.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 29.2%
Player Fouled 25.9% 27.5%
Turnover 15.6% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCLA SDSU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 31.5%