NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BEL SAM
Points 79.1 81.2
Total Points   160.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 27.9 29.2
Points From Free Throws 16.5 13.9
Shooting BEL SAM
Field Goals Made 26.7 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 61.3
Field Goal % 47.5% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 16.5 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 19.7
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.7%
Ball Control BEL SAM
Rebounds 34.0 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.5
Turnovers 14.1 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.4
Steals 7.7 8.3
Fouls 15.9 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BEL SAM
Total Possessions 76.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 73.5
% of Possessions with BEL SAM
2 Point Attempt 35.8% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 30.3%
Player Fouled 22.8% 20.9%
Turnover 18.5% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BEL SAM
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 26.5%