NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCLA CAL
Points 69.1 68.5
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 27.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 26.6
Points From Free Throws 16.1 14.2
Shooting UCLA CAL
Field Goals Made 23.6 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.2
Field Goal % 41.7% 39.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 30.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 16.1 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 19.5
Free Throw % 74.3% 73.2%
Ball Control UCLA CAL
Rebounds 36.9 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.9
Turnovers 8.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 1.8
Steals 4.7 4.5
Fouls 16.1 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCLA CAL
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 69.1
% of Possessions with UCLA CAL
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 38.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 33.1%
Player Fouled 23.7% 23.3%
Turnover 12.6% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCLA CAL
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 26.6%