NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BEL ILST
Points 72.9 67.2
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.8 18.2
Points From Free Throws 11.1 13.2
Shooting BEL ILST
Field Goals Made 26.4 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 57.0
Field Goal % 47.2% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 28.0%
Free Throws Made 11.1 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 18.1
Free Throw % 73.1% 73.0%
Ball Control BEL ILST
Rebounds 32.5 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 9.8
Turnovers 10.1 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.1
Steals 5.4 5.4
Fouls 14.8 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BEL ILST
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 68.3
% of Possessions with BEL ILST
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.6% 27.2%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.6%
Turnover 14.7% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BEL ILST
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 27.5%