NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BEL TNST
Points 79.2 66.8
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 18.0
Points From Free Throws 18.7 14.4
Shooting BEL TNST
Field Goals Made 26.1 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 56.5
Field Goal % 48.4% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 18.7 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 18.9
Free Throw % 73.1% 76.1%
Ball Control BEL TNST
Rebounds 34.4 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.2
Steals 8.0 6.1
Fouls 14.7 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BEL TNST
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 68.4
% of Possessions with BEL TNST
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 24.2%
Player Fouled 25.4% 20.2%
Turnover 15.6% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BEL TNST
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 25.2%