NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ETSU KU
Points 62.5 79.3
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 24.6 46.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 15.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 16.6
Shooting ETSU KU
Field Goals Made 20.9 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 55.5
Field Goal % 34.7% 51.7%
2 Pointers Made 12.3 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 37.0% 59.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 27.0 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 23.3
Free Throw % 66.1% 71.4%
Ball Control ETSU KU
Rebounds 34.1 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 8.3
Turnovers 11.5 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 6.1 7.0
Fouls 16.6 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ETSU KU
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 69.4
% of Possessions with ETSU KU
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 19.6%
Player Fouled 17.1% 23.2%
Turnover 16.1% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ETSU KU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 27.3%