NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHSO TST
Points 62.4 74.5
Total Points   136.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 45.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 14.8
Points From Free Throws 11.0 13.8
Shooting CHSO TST
Field Goals Made 22.5 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 61.5
Field Goal % 39.2% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 22.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 44.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 28.7%
Free Throws Made 11.0 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 18.2
Free Throw % 69.7% 75.8%
Ball Control CHSO TST
Rebounds 36.1 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 10.3
Turnovers 12.2 7.1
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.3
Steals 2.9 7.3
Fouls 14.1 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Tarleton St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHSO TST
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 72.5
% of Possessions with CHSO TST
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 54.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 21.4%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.4%
Turnover 17.6% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 4.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHSO TST
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 28.6%