NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OSU DUKE
Points 70.3 74.3
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 23.1
Points From Free Throws 13.1 13.7
Shooting OSU DUKE
Field Goals Made 25.8 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 61.1
Field Goal % 44.9% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 13.1 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 19.1
Free Throw % 75.2% 71.6%
Ball Control OSU DUKE
Rebounds 34.7 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 11.4
Turnovers 9.6 8.1
Blocked Shots 5.5 3.1
Steals 4.0 5.1
Fouls 13.7 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Ohio St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OSU DUKE
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 71.8
% of Possessions with OSU DUKE
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 24.5%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.0%
Turnover 14.0% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OSU DUKE
Shot Blocked 5.1% 9.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 30.7%