NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OSU ILL
Points 74.2 79.8
Total Points   154.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 22.7
Points From Free Throws 13.6 16.5
Shooting OSU ILL
Field Goals Made 27.4 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 63.3
Field Goal % 43.5% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 46.5 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.6 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 22.3
Free Throw % 75.2% 73.8%
Ball Control OSU ILL
Rebounds 35.0 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 13.1
Turnovers 7.3 7.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.0
Steals 4.1 3.4
Fouls 15.9 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OSU ILL
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.8 76.7
% of Possessions with OSU ILL
2 Point Attempt 56.4% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 24.9%
Player Fouled 19.9% 22.3%
Turnover 10.3% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken OSU ILL
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 34.1%