NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OSU IOWA
Points 73.2 70.5
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 27.4 25.4
Points From Free Throws 14.2 13.7
Shooting OSU IOWA
Field Goals Made 24.9 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 55.6
Field Goal % 43.7% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 14.2 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 18.3
Free Throw % 75.8% 74.9%
Ball Control OSU IOWA
Rebounds 36.2 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 8.2
Turnovers 11.2 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.4
Steals 5.1 4.7
Fouls 16.7 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Ohio State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OSU IOWA
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 66.7
% of Possessions with OSU IOWA
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 29.6%
Player Fouled 22.3% 24.0%
Turnover 16.2% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken OSU IOWA
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 24.2%