NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OSU MSU
Points 66.9 69.1
Total Points   136.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 18.6
Points From Free Throws 13.6 11.8
Shooting OSU MSU
Field Goals Made 23.2 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 61.5
Field Goal % 41.5% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 44.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 43.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 13.6 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 16.3
Free Throw % 75.2% 72.5%
Ball Control OSU MSU
Rebounds 35.7 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 11.2
Turnovers 10.4 8.4
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.2
Steals 4.1 5.4
Fouls 14.3 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Ohio St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OSU MSU
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 71.1
% of Possessions with OSU MSU
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 54.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 20.9%
Player Fouled 22.7% 21.0%
Turnover 15.2% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken OSU MSU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 29.6%