NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COLO CSU
Points 72.9 72.7
Total Points   145.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 18.9
Points From Free Throws 15.4 11.5
Shooting COLO CSU
Field Goals Made 25.9 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 56.6
Field Goal % 47.5% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 59.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 15.4 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 15.4
Free Throw % 76.0% 74.7%
Ball Control COLO CSU
Rebounds 34.6 27.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 5.9
Turnovers 10.9 8.7
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.1
Steals 4.8 5.9
Fouls 13.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COLO CSU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 65.9
% of Possessions with COLO CSU
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.0% 27.7%
Player Fouled 23.4% 20.0%
Turnover 15.8% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken COLO CSU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 18.8%